In May we saw sharp hiring slow down
and big,gap between weaked payroll number
and other employment data for example historical high job opening
number and histrial low jobless claim.
What is the background of this contradictory economic
Bad employment number in May was effected by the
Verizon communication strike and now concluded with
return to workforce.
Do you think the factor would contribute to strong recovery
in next employment data?
temporally hiring number was declined sharply last month.
Do you think this is a temporally occasion or a sign of
Fundamental change in job market?
Officials will likely modify their assessment of
the employment outlook in their policy statement,
acknowledging the sharp hiring slowdownin May
that Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen dubbed “concerning”
in her June 6 speech. Other labor-market data has been
mixed: new jobless claims remain at historic lows,
but the hiring rate slowed in April. On the other hand,
the Fed could upgrade its assessment of economic growth
amid signs of stronger demand.
The Fed also releases fresh projections detailing where officials
see the economy and interest rates heading over the next few years.
Fed officials are grappling with how high their benchmark federal-funds
rate will go, given the apparently low natural rate of interest,
the inflation-adjusted rate that balances investment and saving.
The so-called dot plot will show how those long-run estimates of the
fed-funds rate have shifted since March.
It’s now been six months since officials have included an
assessment in their statement of the balance of risks
to the outlook for the U.S. economy. Though officials have
acknowledged global risks have receded, they have new worries
in the latest jobs numbers. Leaving the language unchanged
would suggest officials are still in wait-and-see mode,
but want to preserve their options.
Mr.Blard questioned about trustworthiness of so called
dot plot , federal fund rate projection chart by fed members.
He addressed Dot plot misled the market early this year.
According dot plot this time, the medium shows there still be
two times rate hike this year.
Do you think this is a worthwhile projection? or we should use
it to see just trend.